At a time of significant supply uncertainty, the In Bi Ge Ga Forum was held for the 18th time in April in the southern Chinese city of Nanning. The event is considered one of China's leading industry gatherings for the markets surrounding indium, bismuth, germanium, and gallium, once again giving TRADIUM the opportunity to assess market sentiment directly on the ground.
Held on April 23 and 24, the In Bi Ga Ge Forum, a conference focused on the technology metals indium, bismuth, gallium, and germanium, has long been regarded as a key meeting point for these sectors. This year, however, the composition of attendees stood out. Whereas previous editions attracted a broad range of international companies, the 2026 event was attended almost exclusively by Chinese participants. One of the very few Western representatives present was Dr Christian Hell, Senior Manager Germanium and Minor Metals at TRADIUM.
One likely explanation for the limited international participation lies in the current market environment. In past years, many foreign attendees represented raw material processing companies based outside China. Due to ongoing export restrictions, however, outside firms now have limited access to critical raw materials. As a result, many no longer see sufficient justification for the effort and cost of intercontinental travel.
Familiar Challenges Continue to Shape the Market
The reduced international presence reflects the broader market situation. Gallium and germanium have now been subject to Chinese export controls for nearly three years. These measures have significantly disrupted international trade flows, creating an oversupplied domestic market in China while material availability outside the country remains extremely tight.
According to Dr Hell, a substantial supply gap equivalent to roughly one year of global production had already emerged by the summer of 2025. At the time, he warned that the imbalance could continue to widen month by month. That scenario has since materialised: Supply conditions remain strained outside China, while trading activity is becoming increasingly concentrated within the domestic Chinese market.
At the same time, the situation inside China is more nuanced. Discussions at the forum suggested that domestic supply in some areas currently exceeds local demand. Several producers have already adjusted output in response to changing sales conditions. A complete production shutdown, however, is not a viable option for many companies due to ongoing operating costs and existing infrastructure commitments.
As a result, comparatively large volumes of material remain available in China, putting downward pressure on domestic prices, while quotations abroad remain significantly higher. In this context, Dr Hell's presentation on developments in the international germanium market attracted considerable attention, particularly regarding price trends outside China.
Uncertain Outlook: No Immediate Signs of Easing Export Controls
How long the export restrictions will remain in place is still unclear, and there are currently no indications of near-term easing. If China were to relax the measures, two broad scenarios appear possible:
- Rapid reopening: A sudden increase in supply could trigger a sharp decline in prices before inventories are quickly absorbed again by the market.
- Gradual easing: A controlled release of material would likely improve availability more slowly while stabilising prices at elevated levels.
Regardless of which path China ultimately chooses, it remains uncertain when, under what conditions, and in what form larger export volumes may return to the global market.
Strong Interest in International Cooperation
Despite ongoing tensions, Dr Hell noted that the forum clearly demonstrated a continued interest in international cooperation. Both Chinese producers and overseas market participants expressed a desire to restore and expand existing trade relationships.
Beyond discussions of familiar market challenges, the event primarily offered direct access to a market that has become increasingly inward-focused over recent months, while still maintaining a strong interest in global exchange.
For Dr Hell, who has attended the conference since its inception, the greatest value once again lay in gaining firsthand insight into developments and sentiment within the Chinese raw materials trade. His conclusion: “The discussions on site made it clear that, despite the current trade restrictions, the need for direct dialogue has not disappeared. Attending industry events such as the In Bi Ge Ga Forum remains essential for identifying and assessing future market developments at an early stage and with greater accuracy.”
The invitation to the 2027 metals forum is already sitting in the germanium expert's inbox.
