Germanium is moving into the defence industry's sights: China's export controls are causing shortages of the critical technology metal. Experts are warning of a growing supply shortage, making strategic stockpiling a key issue.
China is the most important producer of numerous raw materials that are categorised as critical for many high-tech industries. The extent of this market power is demonstrated by the reactions to the country's most recent export controls. For some raw materials, the authorisation procedure brought exports to a complete standstill. This also applies to Germaniumwhich is currently enjoying greater attention. This is because the technology metal is considered a "hidden champion" in the defence industry, as TRADIUM expert Dr Christian Hell explains. Whether night vision devices, sensors or high-tech lenses, germanium has a whole range of highly specialised applications in military technology. There is currently talk from the defence industry that the supply of germanium is becoming a problem, like the recent Handelsblatt reported.
Exports are currently declining
At present, only a few Germanium from China in the West, compared to the previous month Exports fell by 93 per cent in April to just 98 kilograms. The last time there was such a sharp decline was in the summer of 2023, when Beijing imposed export controls for the first time. The processing of export licences is estimated to take around 45 working days. The same applies to other critical raw materials and end products that are used in weapons systems, such as heavy rare earths like Terbium or Dysprosiumbut also magnets made of Samarium. Here apply same requirements and processing times in China since the beginning of Aprilthat are currently affecting the supply.
"The world is once again surprised because there is another shortage of supplies. The fact that supplies of individual raw materials are becoming scarce naturally brings indirect benefits to countries with raw material deposits in areas such as the defence industry. Strategic planning could possibly have prevented this scenario or at least minimised the current extent of the shortage of raw materials. Long-term planning and the strategic development of stockpiles are therefore not only urgently needed for the future, but are even unavoidable in the long term," says Christian Hell.
Upgrading is resource-intensive
The defence alliance NATO classifies a total of twelve raw materials as essential In addition to the metals mentioned, these include aluminium and platinum. Given the increasing polarisation of the world, it is foreseeable that demand from the military sector will continue to rise. In March of this year, the European Union adopted the Readiness 2030" defence plan which is intended to mobilise up to 800 billion euros for the expansion of European military capabilities.
(Re)armament is also playing a growing role in other countries. The US government, for example, has announced a 13% increase in defence spending for 2026 compared to 2025, which would mean a total budget of over one trillion dollars for the first time. Japan wants to double its defence spending to almost two percent of gross domestic product by 2027.
Against this backdrop, the development of raw material partnerships with countries that are rich in mineral resources, as well as the development of domestic capacities for extraction and further processing, are gaining new relevance. The same applies to the stockpiling mentioned by TRADIUM expert Hell, the development of strategic stock reserves. What companies can still learn from the current situation was recently discussed in a market insight shown.
