The prices of germanium and rhenium have been rising steadily for months. In July, this trend gained even more momentum. What are the possible reasons for this? The TRADIUM experts categorise the market movement.
Germanium: Prices higher than they have been for over ten years
The Price for germanium already fluctuated greatly last year, mainly influenced by the export restrictions from China that have been in force since summer 2023. This trend now appears to be continuing: Germanium is currently becoming significantly more expensive.
Matthias Rüth, Managing Director of TRADIUM GmbH, explains the development by saying that the legally prescribed stockpiling of important raw materials in China has led to a shortage in the market. In addition, the People's Republic, one of the most important germanium producers, imposed export controls in the summer of 2023. This has further reduced availability on the international market.
"In addition, global demand for germanium is increasing, especially in the infrared industry, which requires the metal for night vision devices," continues Rüth. "Companies with large stocks of germanium are currently holding them back and waiting to see how the market develops, which is driving prices up further."
Already At the beginning of the year, the management consultancy Deloitte a supply shortage for the current year, which has now been confirmed.
Price of rhenium at an eight-year high
The price of rhenium has also risen sharply and is currently at a level last seen in 2016. In July alone, the price rose by 15 per cent.
Rhenium thus shows a similar pattern to that previously seen with Hafnium. Both technology metals are essential for the aviation industry, particularly in alloys that are required for the production of turbine blades and casings to make them more heat-resistant and efficient. This leads to lower paraffin consumption in aeroplanes and higher energy efficiency in gas or steam turbines.
The price charts for germanium, rhenium, hafnium and other raw materials are available on our website and are updated regularly.
In the industry, the increased demand for superalloys for turbine engines and for catalysts in oil refineries are seen as the reasons for the price surge. Both areas are among the most important applications for the raw material.
"After the price increase for hafnium last year, a similar development for rhenium comes as no surprise. We can see that demand from industry is continuously increasing. So far, there are no substitution possibilities with other metals in sight."
Global production of the two technology metals is also highly concentrated. Europe and the USA account for a small proportion of this. Only 45 per cent of hafnium is produced in France and 41 per cent in the USA. Chile accounts for 50 per cent of rhenium, while the USA and Poland each have a share of around 15 per cent.
The Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research expects the demand for rhenium to double by 2040. Only recently, the major aircraft manufacturers Airbus and Boeing pointed out that air traffic has picked up enormously since the end of the coronavirus pandemic. They anticipate a demand of more than 40,000 new machines in the next 20 years. This should continue to drive demand for rhenium and hafnium and keep the market moving.
You can find out more about large price fluctuations in comparatively small commodity markets in our Contribution to volatility.
* In this article, we refer to the development of germanium and rhenium prices in US dollars, the leading international currency on the commodities markets.
