Geopolitical tensions and the strict export controls imposed by the world's leading producer of gallium and germanium, China, continue to cause market volatility. There are signs of some significant shifts in export volumes and recipients.
In November, the Gallium-exports from China still show a strong decline of 53 per cent, This was followed by a recovery in December. At a total of 10,809 kilograms, December exports were almost 49 per cent higher than the previous month's figure. This is shown by data published by the Chinese customs authority on Tuesday. As in November, the largest share of the material flowed to Japan, followed by Slovakia and Estonia.
With Germanium the picture was quite the opposite: China's exports fell by 44 per cent in December. The most important customer countries remained stable, with Russia receiving the lion's share, followed by Germany.
Development of gallium exports over the past few months
Development of germanium exports over the past few months
Export restrictions characterise the supply situation
China is the leading producer of both technology metals and had exports of gallium and germanium severely restricted in summer 2023. The trade policy measure was justified by the possible use of raw materials in military applications. These restrictions continue to influence how much material is available on the global market. A comparison with the previous year reveals significant bottlenecks, particularly for germanium. Exports fell by almost 60 per cent compared to 2024.
Dr Christian Hell, Senior Manager Germanium and Minor Metals: „There has been little change in the supply situation for germanium. We have been observing a decline in Chinese exports for months, which is continuing. Exported quantities are falling even further. So far, Russia in particular has benefited from this tense situation, as it continues to receive reliable supplies. The situation is different for gallium. Deliveries to key customer countries such as Germany and Japan have been relatively stable so far. The metal is an important raw material for China itself, especially for civilian applications in the form of gallium arsenide semiconductors. Beijing is correspondingly cautious when it comes to export requirements. A noticeable restriction of supply flows would directly affect the domestic industry.“
Exports to Japan could fall sharply in 2026
In contrast, gallium exports rose slightly year-on-year - from 60,880 kilograms in 2024 to 62,615 kilograms in 2025. However, there were noticeable changes in the target markets: South Korea received significantly less, while Japan was able to expand its imports compared to 2024.
The picture could shift again in 2026, as China lifted its export controls on dual-use goods, which include gallium and germanium, at the beginning of January, tightened towards Japan. The background to this is the increasing tension between the two countries.
