Since summer 2023, the export of gallium and germanium from China has been heavily regulated and consequently curtailed. The latest data on exports show no recovery even almost two years after the regulations came into force. TRADIUM experts analyse what this means for the industry.
Following a complete ban on exports in May, China resumed exporting gallium in June. This is according to the latest figures from the customs authorities. A total of 4,260 kilograms of the metal, which is critical for the high-tech industry, left the country last month. The main buyers were Japan (2,004 kg) and Germany (2,000 kg). By comparison, China exported 4,184 kilograms of gallium in June 2024. However, there is no sign of an easing of the situation on a quarterly basis: The period between April and June 2025 marked the third consecutive quarter of declining gallium exports.
Jan Giese, Senior Manager Minor Metals and Rare Earths: "The export figures for gallium appear to be volatile on a monthly basis. After coming to a complete standstill in May, exports rose again significantly in June. However, if one only looks at these short-term fluctuations, this falls short of the mark. On a quarterly basis, there is a clear trend: exports are falling overall. In our view, this is an indication that the market is gradually moving into a structural deficit. It is striking that the Chinese authorities are increasingly demanding specific information on end use. This is a critical point for gallium in particular. The material usually goes through several processing steps before it reaches the end customer. It is therefore often not possible to clearly assign the utilisation. In such cases, in our experience, an export application tends not to be approved. Short-term upward spikes therefore do little to change the fundamental trend of increasingly limited availability."
The trend for germanium is more drastic: exports in June remained at an extremely low level of just 96 kilograms - significantly less than the 1,328 kilograms in the same month last year. Germany received 74 kilograms and Russia 22 kilograms.
Dr Christian Hell, Senior Manager Minor Metals: "The current export figures come as no surprise. China has repeatedly signalled that the export hurdles for germanium are higher than ever. The metal is strategically critical, especially in the non-civilian sector. In practice, this means that many end customers do not want to be named in the export applications or cannot be clearly identified due to complex value chains. Our experience shows: In such cases, the authorities generally do not grant a licence. The processing time of at least 45 working days and the lack of alternatives to the raw material available at short notice indicate that the supply situation will continue to worsen, especially if the geopolitical conditions do not change."
Both metals are indispensable for semiconductors, fibre optic technology and infrared applications. As the world's leading producer, China plays a key role in controlling access to the global market. Licence requirements for exports have been in force since summer 2023, with an official processing time of 45 days; in practice, the approval processes often take longer. In addition, there has been a complete ban on exports to the USA since December 2023, which places an additional burden on global supply chains.
